Arkansas +7

 When Arkansas has the ball

• Taylen Green (dual-threat) vs Ole Miss front seven: Green’s start (561 pass yds, 10 TD, 192 rush yds through two games) puts real strain on run fits and contain
• Hogs OL/run game vs early-season Rebel rush D narrative: Lane Kiffin has defended his unit after some leaky early numbers, but Green’s QB run plus Arkansas’ gap schemes are a direct stress test.
• WR O’Mega Blake vs Ole Miss corners: Blake leads Arkansas in receiving and has been the go-to on money downs—his win rate outside dictates whether Arkansas stays ahead of the chains
• Red-zone execution: Arkansas has been perfect in the red zone; Ole Miss’ red-zone defense sits top-15 nationally so far

When Ole Miss has the ball

• RB Kewan Lacy vs Razorbacks linebackers: Lacy is the heartbeat—246 rush yards and 4 TD already; if Arkansas can keep him under early-down efficiency, they can unleash pressure packages on passing downs.
• Harrison Wallace III vs Arkansas secondary: Wallace is Simmons’ field-stretcher (team-high 247 receiving yds); limiting his explosives is priority No. 1 on the back end.
• Austin Simmons’ mobility/health vs Arkansas contain: Simmons is off the injury list and expected to go; his ability to move post-ankle tweak affects boot/RPO game and third-down scrambles.

Other Trends

• Third downs: Ole Miss’ defense has been excellent on third down (19% allowed), which collides with Arkansas’ explosive, tempo-driven offense
• Turnovers and penalties: Ole Miss enters at –3 in turnover margin and among the most penalized teams by yards; Arkansas is +2
• Explosives/tempo: Both are top-10 nationally in offense and among SEC leaders in plays of 20+ yards